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MLB picks: Best bets for NLCS Game 2 and ALCS Game 1, including Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Yordan Alvarez

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Welcome back, fellow gamblers. Tuners probably had a good day yesterday. It was a strong to strong night, depending on how much action we gave Aaron Judge and/or Bryce Harper. Going with a home run alone on each was +580 and I hope many of you loaded up on the runs, RBI and total base scenes as well. On the ALDS side, we missed Juan Soto and above, but hitting everything is unrealistic.

Our eyes now return to day one with two LCS games and it’s a lot of fun. There are relative newcomers in the NLCS (and sixth straight for the Astros) before the Yankees and Astros battle it out for a third time in the last six ALCS.

stick to Bryce

Ever since I saw Bryce Harper homer in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, I’ve been preaching that he’ll be hot and stay that way. In his last six games, he is 11 in 24 with three doubles, four home runs, seven RBIs and six runs. If anyone has used a hot hand up to this point, that person is way above.

Blake Snell, who started the Padres, is left-handed and Harper hardly hits lefties. Harper is only 1 in 7 in his career against Snell, but that one hit was a two-game homer in 2021, after which Snell’s faulty field broke Harper’s finger this year. I feel it’s time for “revenge” on the field.

Take a look:

  • More than 0.5 runs (+117)
  • More than 0.5 hits (-208)
  • Over 1.5 total bases (+139)
  • More than 0.5 RBI (+168)
  • home run (+500)

Juan Soto more than 0.5 runs (+102)

Facing Aaron Nola the day after he was completely shut down by Zack Wheeler is a tough task, but I don’t see the Padres being shut down again. As I mentioned before Game 1, Soto started swinging the bat really well in NLDS and it feels like there’s a lurking breakout. I won’t trust him for a big game but he’s seen Nola 47 times in his career and he’s seen .273/.489/.606. Yes, note this mean/OBP split. He walked against Nola 14 times. As such, we don’t necessarily want to rely on hits, home runs or RBI support, but getting him to base in front of Manny Machado seems like a good way to score the running goal. We will take it.

Yankees vs. Running OVER the Astros 7 (+100)

Look, we’re all set for the playoffs, so the fact that I’ve been jaw-dropped by the Yankees more than three times so far doesn’t deter me here.

The Yankees are starting Jameson Taillon, and he’s the kind of pitcher the Astros will feast on. Actually there is already. On June 23, they nailed him for six runs in 10 innings in 5 2/3 innings. Monday break and short rest on Tuesday While Nestor Cortes’ great work helps, this is still a tired and relatively unreliable Taurus.

On the Astros side, Justin Verlander and a totally relaxed and loaded bullring await the Yankees. I still think the Yankees will score a few points. Verlander was bombed by the Marines in Game 1 of ALDS – a less criminal attack on the Yankees. Much has been lazily attributed to the “pass” as it went from October 4 to October 11 without pitching.

During the regular season, however, Verlander went from June 29 to July 7, allowing just one win in the second round in six innings. Then, on July 16, he landed six goalless hits with 10 hits. Then, on July 23, there was a run in seven innings (against the Mariners!). It doesn’t look like it’s certain that rust is a problem in July.

Verlander is also 39 years old and currently has 179 strokes coming out of Tommy John’s surgery. If he gets hit again, expect people to blame something other than the simplest explanation: He’s 39 and is coming out of a major arm reconstruction.

look at yordan

Yordan Alvarez has appeared in both of the Astros’ home playoffs so far, including the series-changing Game 1, and has been a 2 in 6 home run against Taillon in his career. I expect Lou Trivino to be one of the Yankees’ biggest sidekicks in this game, and Alvarez is 3v4 and twice as good in a home run.

Take a look:

  • More than 0.5 runs (+100)
  • More than 0.5 hits (-218)
  • more than 0.5 pairs (+334)
  • Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
  • More than 0.5 RBI (+162)
  • Home run (+340)

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